TEHRAN(Bazaar) – Robert Y. Shapiro, professor of Columbia University says: With the decline of Russian influence in the Central Asia and Caucasus region, we are witnessing the strong presence of China in the region. These developments will affect Iran's relations with the countries of the region.
Following is the full text of the interview:
Q: The Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia have announced that soon a peace agreement will be made between them for the exchange of prisoners and the normalization of political relations. What are the reasons for a possible agreement between them?
A: The two countries have announced several times that they are ready to sign a peace agreement, but so far they have not made any progress in this field.
Q: It seems that the Republic of Azerbaijan has fallen short of its initial positions after the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020. The decrease of Israel's support for Baku as a result of the Gaza war and the increase of America's and France's support for Armenia are said to be the reasons for this issue. What is your assessment?
A: International conditions have always influenced the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis, and countries such as Israel, and the United States have supported the Republic of Azerbaijan in this crisis. Reducing this support can help the Baku-Yervan peace agreement.
Q: After initial positions regarding the construction of the Zangzur Corridor and Iran's strong opposition, Baku and Ankara have agreed to communicate through Iran. Do you think the issue of Zangzur Corridor may be raised by them again?
A: The Republic of Azerbaijan is completing the infrastructure related to Zangzur Corridor and will put pressure on Armenia to accept it. Since Iran is against the Zangzur Corridor, its construction will naturally cause tension in the region.
Q: The reduction of Russia's support to Armenia has made Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to request a review of the border agreements with Russia. There were even talks about withdrawing from the collective security pact from Yerevan. Do you think these measures will be implemented? If so, what are the implications for Iran?
A: Armenia is not in a position to open another front of tension with Russia or Iran, Neither economically nor politically.
Q: Regarding the decrease of Russian influence in the Caucasus, how do you evaluate the future developments of this region and its impact on Iran?
A: With the reduction of Russian influence in the Central Asia and Caucasus region, which considers this region as its privileged sphere of influence, we are witnessing the strong presence of China in the region. China with Belt and Road Initiative through Central Asia and the Middle East, want to connect China to European markets. These developments will affect Iran's relations with the countries of the region and will bring economic benefits to this country, considering the sanctions of the United States against Tehran and the strong relations between Tehran and Beijing.
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