TEHRAN (Bazaar) – Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says the war in Gaza may create an incentive for the positive development of the relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
“The two governments already seem to have found some common ground in objecting to Israeli attacks on Gaza,” Pillar told Bazaar News Agency.
Following is the full text of the interview.
Q: During the war between Hamas and Israel, some sources in America and their affiliated media reported that Iranian money was blocked in Qatar again, which was later denied. Do you think there was a message hidden in this news?
A: It does appear that the Biden administration has decided to suspend, at least temporarily, any disbursement of the funds that, under the prisoner release deal, are supposed to be disbursed from Qatar for humanitarian purposes in Iran. The administration evidently wanted to make some sort of negative statement about Iran because of Iran's longstanding material support to Hamas.
Q: How likely is it that America will use these funds as leverage against Iran in the future? If so, what will be the harm to America?
A: I expect the funds may be withheld as long as the Israel-Gaza war continues, with the implied threat to withhold them even longer if Iran somehow weighs in against Israel in the current conflict. The main harm to America is that it further damages U.S. credibility regarding its willingness to abide by agreements it has reached. This will make it more difficult for the U.S. to reach new agreements with anyone, not just Iran.
Q: What is the impact of this war on the future of Iran's nuclear negotiations?
A: The war makes any progress in the nuclear negotiations unlikely for the foreseeable future. The Biden administration will not want to subject itself to domestic critics who will attack any diplomacy with Iran as an appeasement of Hamas's principal sponsor.
Q: What effects will this war have on the future of Iran and Saudi Arabia relations?
Q: What is the effect of the war between Hamas and Israel on the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel?
A: Such normalization is now unlikely for the foreseeable future, and certainly for at least as long as the war in Gaza continues. The Israeli government will not want to make any positive gestures toward the Palestinians, and the Saudi regime would find it difficult to take such a step amid much popular anger at Israel.
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