TEHRAN (Bazaar) – Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says it is encouraging at any time to hear the Iranian foreign minister make a positive statement about possible negotiations, but it remains to be seen whether the Iranian government currently sees the situation as one in which it would want to negotiate seriously to get a new agreement soon.
“Oman has a long and positive track record as a mediator between Iran and the West, and I would look more to them than to the Japanese to play a major mediation role on Iranian nuclear matters,” Pillar told Bazaar News Agency.
Following is the full text of the interview.
Q: The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, recently said that Iran is rapidly enriching uranium, but we are not saying that it has weapons. He has also announced that the path of talks with Iran is still open. What is your assessment of his words?
A: It is a truthful description of the current situation regarding Iran's nuclear program, in which there has been a conspicuous increase in enrichment of uranium to the 60% level but also no indication that Iran has decided to build a nuclear weapon. Grossi and the IAEA will always stand ready to support any move toward negotiation of a new agreement to place limits on that program, but the IAEA cannot create the necessary political conditions for any negotiations to succeed.
Q: After Grossi's statement, Anthony Blinken also announced that the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA was a big mistake and that Iran's nuclear program has been freed from this restraint and we are now in a situation that we did not want to be in. What is your assessment of his words?
A: Again, a simple statement of the truth, and consistent with what the Biden administration has said all along about Trump's 2018 withdrawal being a mistake. But unfortunately, the Biden administration did not make the moves immediately upon taking office three years ago that would have been the best way to reverse that mistake.
Q: In a statement parallel to Grossi and Blinken's statements, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian announced in a meeting with the Swiss Foreign Minister: “The Sultan of Oman's initiative is still on the table and the Islamic Republic of Iran adheres to the path of negotiation.” Can these positions be considered a reason to start negotiations?
A: It is encouraging at any time to hear the Iranian foreign minister make a positive statement about possible negotiations, but it remains to be seen whether the Iranian government currently sees the situation as one in which it would want to negotiate seriously to get a new agreement soon. The minister might have made his remarks just as part of a general effort to sound peaceful and cooperative.
Q: At the same time, Iran's foreign minister has announced that the Sultan of Oman's initiative is on the table, and before that a plan was proposed by Japan, which was welcomed by Amir-Abdollahian. Do you think that Iran has that plan on its agenda or is it focused on Oman's plan?
A: I have never been persuaded that Japan really had much of a "plan," in terms of specific proposals. Oman has a long and positive track record as a mediator between Iran and the West, and I would look more to them than to the Japanese to play a major mediation role on Iranian nuclear matters.
Q: In general, what is the meaning of these positions proposed by the officials of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran and the United States in the midst of the Gaza war and war in the Red Sea?
A: The statements reflect the reality that it would be in everyone's interest to reach some kind of new nuclear agreement involving Iran. But all these players realize that especially with the current conflicts, there is unlikely to be, for the time being, the necessary political support--certainly in Washington, but also elsewhere--to make a new effort at negotiations.
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