TEHRAN (Bazaar) –Nader Entessar, Professor Emeritus of Political Science from university of South Alabama says that the only impact Biden's trip will have on nuclear negotiations with Iran is if Biden hears a different message from its Trump-like approach to the JCPOA; something that is very unlikely.
“Saudi Arabia's excess production capacity is not sufficient to answer global oil demands and prices at this time,” Entessar told Bazaar.
Following is the full text of the Bazaar interview with Professor Entessar:
Bazaar: While it was said that the American policy regarding the Persian Gulf has changed due to the containment of China, we are witnessing the importance of the region’s oil after the war in Ukraine. Do you agree with this argument?
Entessar: Although there are always ups and downs and tweaks in American foreign policy in the Persian Gulf, the fundamentals of Washington's foreign policy in the Persian Gulf have remained fairly unchanged since the late 1970s. Specifically, access to the region's energy resources both as an economic necessity and as an economic tool against US's adversaries, continue to remain a major pillar of America's regional policy. This is especially the case today than has been the case in the past few years.
Bazaar: Biden's trip to the region is an attempt to find a way to reduce oil prices with Saudi’s help. Will this happen?
Entessar: It may work but only marginally. Saudi Arabia's excess production capacity is not sufficient to answer global oil demands and prices at this time. Besides, Riyadh may demand major political concessions from Washington to increase oil production in order to help Biden at a time that his domestic standing is at an all-time low. Also, Saudis may want to bide their time and bank on a friendlier Congress after the 2022 mid-term elections and the 2024 presidential election that may bring an accommodating or Trumpist president to power in Washington.
Bazaar: The United States is trying to encourage Saudi Arabia to stage a coup against Russia by withdrawing from the OPEC+ agreement and subsequently increasing oil production to improve its price in Western countries. Is this happening?
Entessar: No, this is not happening now. It is important for the Saudis to maintain a balanced relationship with Russia, and it is unlikely that Riyadh would want to jeopardize its relations with Moscow and unduly antagonize Russia. One thing Saudi Arabia has learned in recent years is not to put all of its eggs in Washington's basket and reduce its window of maneuverability.
Bazaar: What effect will Biden's trip to the region has on nuclear negotiations with Iran?
Entessar: Not much. The only impact Biden's trip will have on nuclear negotiations with Iran is if Biden hears a different message from its Trump-like approach to the JCPOA; something that is very unlikely.
Bazaar: Will this trip affect the negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia?
Entessar: This will depend on the tone of Saudi-US talks and Riyadh's assessment of Biden's hardened approach to Iran. Of course, the future of Iran-Saudi relations is predicated on the resolution or mutually acceptable management of many regional issues as well as the contours of US-Saudi relations.
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