TEHRAN(Bazaar) – Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says economic relationship between Iran and Iraq is improving and expanding, and various factors, including internal and regional factors, are the basis for this progress.
Following is the text of the interview with Professor Paul Pillar:
Bazaar: How do you assess the relations between Iran and Iraq, considering the recent visit of the security and economic officials of this country to Iran?
Pillar: The relationship is improving. Several factors, both those internal to the two countries and others involving wider regional issues, underlie the improvement. From Iran's point of view, for example, any deepening of relations with neighboring states underscores that Iran is not isolated and, as it faces negotiations regarding return to compliance with the JCPOA nuclear agreement, it can present itself as being not in a weak position.
Bazaar: What are the most important obstacles and challenges in the relations between the two countries?
Pillar: Historical rivalry and animosity will always be in the background as a potential challenge. Probably the greater immediate obstacle, however, involves Iran's influence with several Iraqi militias that are a major part of the security picture inside Iraq. The extent of Iranian influence within Iraq rubs up against Iraqi nationalism, and this is a problem for Iraqi leaders.
Bazaar: Iraq was the enemy of Iran during the Ba'athist era, and after the fall of Saddam, relations between the two countries entered a new phase of competition and cooperation. What is the significance of these relations for the two countries?
Pillar: Both countries realize that they cannot afford to risk any repetition of the extremely destructive war that they fought in the 1980s. Both realize, therefore, that they must have a relationship with each other that is cordial enough to preclude such a war.
Bazaar: During the recent visit of Iraqi Foreign Minister Fouad Hussein to Iran and meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, preparations were made for the start of construction and completion of the Shalamcheh-Basra railway in order to help expand trade relations between the two countries. Zarif stressed and called for the speedy action of the relevant officials of the two countries to implement this railway as soon as possible. What do you think is the importance of this railway and what economic benefits will it bring to the two countries?
Pillar: Probably the main significance of the railway is symbolic, as an indicator of closer ties between the two countries. The railway also can be used to transport Shia pilgrims, not only from Iran but also from origins farther east. The direct economic benefits are likely to be modest, but even small increases in economic interdependence through increased trade between the two countries will further reduce the chance of serious ruptures between them.
Bazaar: One of the important issues in regional cooperation is how the three countries of Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia interact. What effects do you think the cooperation between Iran and Iraq will have on the security order of the Persian Gulf?
Pillar: Bilateral reductions of tensions can contribute positively to greater region-wide security. This is certainly true of relations between Iran and Iraq, given that they are two of the larger and more significant states in the Persian Gulf region. Such bilateral tension-reducing efforts are entirely compatible with possible larger multilateral structures, such as with what Iran has proposed with its HOPE initiative.
Bazaar: According to some news, Iraq is currently acting as a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Why do you think Iraq has played this role?
Pillar: One reason is that Iraqi leaders understand that any escalation of Saudi-Iranian tensions into a military clash risks causing collateral damage to Iraqi interests, including possible disruption of its oil trade. Another reason is that Iraqi needs good relations with both of its large neighbors, and maintaining such relations is easier to the extent that the two neighbors are not in a state of high tension and confrontation with each other.
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