TEHRAN(Bazaar) – Robert Czulda, professor at Lodz university says that the increasing power of China and its actions will further push India towards collaboration with the West.
Following is the full text of the Bazaar interview with Professor Robert Czulda:
Q: Since January 1, Iran has become a permanent member of the BRICS group. What is the importance of this membership for the BRICS group? What is its importance for Iran?
A: It is hard to disagree with the statement that in practice, BRICS is mainly China with addition of other member states. International institutions generally belong to its powerful countries, and China is the most powerful member of BRICS and has the greatest economic potential. This disparity makes BRICS less significant, especially considering the strong antagonisms between India and China. Politically, India is increasingly leaning towards the West (collaborating with France, the USA, and Japan as a counterbalance to China, particularly in the Indian Ocean). India would not be interested in transforming BRICS into an anti-Western group, which is something China desires.
For Iran, any new form of economic cooperation is beneficial—of course, if it is genuine collaboration with practical results rather than just declared. Questions arise here because mere membership in BRICS does not eliminate trade barriers, including tariffs, nor does it create new channels of cooperation. The open question remains whether Iran will be able to establish appropriate channels of cooperation. After all, Iran already collaborates with China, and cooperation with India is also being developed, though certain projects, such as joint infrastructure projects in Afghanistan, have failed due to geopolitical reasons.
Q: BRICS and Shanghai are among the organizations that some experts believe will manage the "Global South". What is your assessment?
A: It is essential to remember that BRICS is not an organization but a loose cooperation forum. Consequently, specific countries, primarily China, can play a leading role. No other BRICS member, except India, has the potential to manage any part of any region. In the case of China, serious problems, including an economic crisis, can be observed. China cannot endlessly invest in countries that are unable to repay the debts. A prime example is Sri Lanka, which incurred debt in China and is facing economic difficulties. Furthermore, western culture is incomparably more attractive than Chinese culture. Millions of people aspire to live in the West, but few consider migrating to China. This does not mean, however, that China should be underestimated. Absolutely not—China is a powerful country, and despite its problems, its significance will continue to grow.
Q: Considering agendas such as de-dollarization in BRICS and Shanghai, do you think these organizations will be able to challenge the Western order in the international system?
A: It is unlikely that these policies will be able to challenge the Western order at least in the near future. These policies have now been adopted by countries affected by US sanctions, and now no currency can challenge the dollar.
Q: India plays a balanced policy against East and West, and membership in BRICS and Shanghai shows that Delhi does not pursue all its interests in the form of association with the West. In your opinion, this issue will not be a challenge for such countries in the future, and it will be possible for them to follow a "hedging strategy"?
A: India's traditional policy has been one of non-alignment, and New Delhi continues to strive for such a policy. India is not a Western state, but it also will not become a part of the China-led anti-Western bloc within BRICS. However, as mentioned earlier, please note that India is much more interested in cooperation with the West than ever before. The QUAD group is an excellent example of this. The increasing power of China and its actions will further push India towards collaboration with the West.
نظر شما