TEHRAN(Bazaar) - Hossein Askari, Adviser to the former King of Saudi Arabia, says Biden will try to mediate between Iran and the GCC countries.
Following is the full text of the exclusive interview of Bazaar with Hossein Askari.
Bazaar: Some believe that given Biden's cabinet, which makes up many of the Obama-era nuclear negotiating team with Iran, we will see sweeping changes in US relations with Iran. What is your assessment?
Askari: Yes, the Biden administration will want better relations with Iran than did Trump, but I don’t think you will see sweeping changes any time soon. Biden is not Obama. Obama was more inclined to develop better relations with Iran. He saw Iran as a good balance to the Persian Gulf Arab states. He had a more balanced approach to Israel than I believe Biden will have. Also the world has changed. Trump’s over the top support for Israel, which incidentally I believe will be detrimental for Israel in the long run, has become a reality. And never forget the role of money in American politics that shapes policies, sometimes to the detriment of the United States and here American Jews have a large say in what politicians do and say. So with these in mind, you will see some humanitarian changes for now but nothing big. The U.S. will not go as far as you may think unless it gets what it wants—restrictions on Iran’s missile program along with its inspections, a lengthening of the sunset clause in the agreement and a demand that Iran not support its allies in the region—Hezbollah, Houthis, Syria and Iraqi Shia militias. They will not call Iran’s presence support but interference. I don’t think Iran can accept these changes unless the U.S. reciprocates in ways acceptable to Iran.
Let me add something that gets lost in all of this. Right after the Iran-Iraq War, I said that if Iran wants to be a truly independent nation it must build a strong economy. This would require reform and building effective institutions. This is a process that would take at least 10 years. Well Iran has done nothing to implement important reforms and as long as it does not, it will be at the mercy of a few Western powers.
Bazaar: According to some news, the lifting of sanctions on Iran's oil was supposed to be in Biden's initial executive order, and this issue has been removed from the agenda. This news was announced by Bloomberg. What do you think is the reason for this?
Askari: The answer to this is obvious. No good negotiator would give up one of his or her important trump cards. Oil exports are very important to Iran. So the Biden team will try to extract concessions from Iran for lifting oil sanctions. Again, Iran cannot be euphoric now that Biden is in change. Yes, it is better for Iran than Trump but Trump has changed the terrain. If Iran had a strong economy it could be in a better position but it has squandered years and the Biden team knows it.
Bazaar: Antony Blinken (President Joe Biden nominee for the position of Secretary of State) said in a Senate confirmation session before the inauguration that the president-elect (Biden) believes that if Iran returns to the agreement, we will return to the agreement, but on this issue, along with our allies. Once again, we will use them as a platform to reach a longer and stronger agreement and address other issues, especially the missile issue and Iran's destabilizing activities. How do you think the JCPOA relates to Iran's missile issues and regional policy?
Askari: “The JCPOA has little to do with Iran’s missile program. Netanyahu and Kushner with the blessing of Trump were trying to render Iran defenseless. The JCPOA had illuminated the possibility of Iran having nuclear warheads and a delivery system for about 12 years. All the while Israel has over 200 nuclear warheads. The U.S. had armed Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE with conventional arms to the teeth. But all this was not enough. They also wanted to make sure that Iran could not defend itself and retaliate if attacked. So they want to get rid of one important and cheap weapon of retaliation, namely missiles. But there was more. They wanted to cut off Iran from its allies in the region. This they called, and now Blinken calls, Iran’s interference in the region, while the U.S. has bases, missiles, planes and soldiers all around and they don’t call their presence what it is—interference. It is duplicity to the max.”
Bazaar: What will be Biden's approach to the Persian Gulf region, and especially to Saudi Arabia? To what extent will US relations with Saudi and Israel be affected by US-Iranian relations?
Askari: Biden will try to reduce tensions in the Persian Gulf. I believe he will try to mediate between Iran and the (P) GCC countries. It is not in U.S. interests to have such tensions and rivalries. Yes, they sell more arms when tensions are high but there are costs—associated U.S. military costs, chance of an accidental war and harm to America’s image abroad as it is forced to support the oppressive rule in Saudi Arabia. I am sure that Biden will be far less forgiving to Saudi Arabia as he and his family will not be getting any financial rewards from Saudi Arabia or the UAE. But change will come slowly. Biden will not want to shock Saudi Arabia. American support will be there but Biden will want concessions—more human and political rights, less support for religious radicals inside and outside Saudi Arabia and the beginnings of a dialogue with Iran.
Please note that relations with Israel will not change much because of Jewish money that backs politicians if they support Israel and also money to unseat them if they don’t. It is that simple. I think that many thoughtful Jews think that Trump’s blind backing of Israel will hurt Israel and the region. But having said this, I don’t think he will drastically reverse Trumps harmful policies—moving the embassy to Jerusalem, Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and other Israeli land grabs in the West bank and Jerusalem. But he will put a stop to these over the top policies. Also remember that Pompeo is looking to run for the presidency in 2024 and he is looking for money. Netanyahu and MBS will try to push back on any positive initiatives towards Iran but I think that Biden will be his own man when it comes to this.
Again, in all these discussions of relationships, I must repeat three things. Iran should reduce its rhetoric as it only hurts Iran in the minds and hearts of Americans; Iran’s enemies stress such rhetoric in the media. Iran must put together a comprehensive plan to improve its image around the world. And possibly most important, Iran must embark on the road to sound economic reforms.
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