TEHRAN(Bazaar) – Tariq Raouf, former Director General of the Atomic Energy Agency says the JCPOA in its July 2015 form is dead!
“There is no way Iran will revert to 2015 JCPOA limits, at best it may agree to "freeze" its enrichment at current level and stop enriching in return for major sanctions relief and release of seized Iran funds in Western banks and South Korea. But this is a long shot,” Rauf told Bazaar news agency.
Following is the text of the Bazaar interview with Tariq Raouf.
Q: Following the Sultan of Oman's visit to Iran, Tehran announced that one of the topics discussed was the nuclear issue. The state newspaper of Oman (Oman Daily) has also evaluated the negotiations in this field positively. What is your assessment of this issue?
A: IAEA DG Grossi has reported positively about Iran's cooperation in his reports of 31 May; notably clarifying the matter regarding Marivan (Abedeh) which is now closed; reinstalltion of cameras at centrifuge manufacturing at Esphan and of enrichment monitoring device (EMD) at Natanz and Fordow.
Q: Before the Sultan of Oman's visit to Iran, Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian visited Oman and spoke about receiving new ideas about nuclear issue. Later, the media revealed that ‘Brett McGurk’, White House Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, made a secret trip to Oman (about two weeks before Amir-Abdollahian’s trip to Oman). Do you think that the idea received by Iran's foreign minister is the same plan for the temporary agreement that the United States has proposed?
A: I do not see any new ideas regarding the Iran nuclear file from Washington; the US is fully occupied with the war in Ukraine and with China, as well as with Israel and Saudi Arabia. It seems the US is not too happy about China mediation bringing Iran and Saudi Arabia together.
Q: If we assume that the plan received by Amir-Abdollahian is the American interim agreement plan, will this plan be an intermediate step to revive the JCPOA? If so, when do you think the JCPOA will be revived? After the US presidential election?
A: The JCPOA in its July 2015 form is dead! There is no way Iran will revert to 2015 JCPOA limits, at best it may agree to "freeze" its enrichment at current level and stop enriching in return for major sanctions relief and release of seized Iran funds in Western banks and South Korea. But this is a long shot.
Q: In a positive report, the International Atomic Energy Agency announced the resolution of 2 safeguard disputes with Iran. These two issues are: the issue of 84% enrichment and the discovery of enriched uranium in Marivan. The case of the first case has been closed by the IAEA and the second case is being verified. In your opinion, what effect will this positive report have on the JCPOA revival process?
A: The 83.7% spike in enrichment was already dealt with in the February 2023 report; in that the product cylinder contained UF6 not above 60%. The May report merely confirms this based on further assessment.
Q: Expressing dissatisfaction with the agreement between Iran and the IAEA, Israel has accused this organization of neglecting these two issues. What is your assessment of Israel's position? If an agreement is reached, what action might Israel take? Can it disrupt an agreement that is supported by the United States?
A: Israel is unhappy as slowly Iran is cooperating with the IAEA to close open issues and that Iran is continuing enrichment at 20% and 60% and further that the US does not favor any military action against Iran either by Israel or the US. Since Netanyahu is in difficult legal and political position domestically, he is shouting about Iran.
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