Professor Entessar: Any concessions in JCPOA will add another nail in Biden's political coffin

TEHRAN (Bazaar) –Nader Entessar, Professor Emeritus of Political Science from university of South Alabama says that any concessions in negotiations with Iran will add another nail in Biden's political coffin.

“It is now time for Iran to look at the post-JCPOA world and break away from the shackles that have kept the country in search of a mirage,” Entessar told Bazaar.

Following is the full text of the Bazaar interview with Professor Entessar:

Bazaar: A draft anti-Iran resolution backed by Europe and the United States has been sent to the International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors, Reuters reported. Do you think such a resolution will be issued?

Entessar: IAEA's regulations specify that a two-thirds majority of the Board of Governors constitutes a quorum and that the decisions of Governors shall be made by a two-thirds majority of the members present. The current (2021-2022) members of the Board of Governors include China and Russia, as well as some other member states, such as South Africa and Vietnam, that have had stable and cordial relations with Iran over the past several years. There are also member states, such as India, who have generally had good relations with Iran but have voted with the West in the previous sessions on Iran. Just taking a cursory look at the current membership of the Board of Governors, it is likely that an anti-Iran resolution will garner the two-thirds majority vote even if countries like China and Russia oppose such a resolution.

Bazaar: Some news sources, including Axios, have reported that the Biden government is unlikely to support the resolution because the dialogue with Iran is not closed. What is your assessment?

Entessar: I don't agree with Axios's story. If an anti-Iran resolution is introduced at the upcoming meeting of the Board of Governors, it will have the support of the Biden administration. Such a resolution will indeed be a joint work of the United States and the Europeans.

Bazaar: Before the important meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors, Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the IAEA, paid a visit to Israel. Following the visit, Israel announced that it would defend itself in the event of a failed diplomacy with Iran and the failure of the IAEA to suspend Iran's nuclear program and that Tel Aviv was committed to halting Iran's nuclear program. What is your assessment of this trip and this Israeli statement?

Entessar: Israel has always been a major cog in the vast machinery of anti-Iran machinations by the West. In fact, Israel is a significant interlocutor in IAEA-Iran relations, especially during Rafael Grossi's directorship at the IAEA. It is hard to say how much of the most recent Israeli threats against Iran are political posturing and how much of them are rooted in actual policy decisions.

Bazaar: Given the current situation, some experts believe that the best way out of the current situation is a temporary agreement for reviving the JCPOA. What is your assessment?

Entessar: Any agreement between Iran and the United States will be a temporary one, and this includes a possible agreement to revive the dying JCPOA. The Biden administration is weak, and US Congress has been very clear about any possible US-Iran agreement. In short, there is no such thing as a durable or lasting agreement between Iran and the United States unless Iran makes a 180-degree turn in its foreign and defense policies and accepts Washington's regional and global ambitions.

Bazaar: The closer we get to the midterm congressional elections, the less American interest in a nuclear deal with Iran. Because even with a proper agreement, Biden will not be able to persuade the opposition inside that not to give concessions to Iran. What is your opinion on this?

Entessar: As I stated in my previous answer, Biden is in a weak position domestically, and public opinion polls in the United States consistently confirm Biden's declining support. In all likelihood, Biden will be in a weaker position after the November mid-term elections are concluded. Any concessions in negotiations with Iran will add another nail in Biden's political coffin. Iran should not fall prey to positions papers and utterances of individuals and “think tanks” that are sympathetic to the Democratic Party's agenda or have their own agendas and lose sight of the fact that it is dealing with a US administration that will not and cannot deliver any substantive and durable sanctions relief to Iran. Maybe it is now time for Iran to look at the post-JCPOA world and break away from the shackles that have kept the country in search of a mirage.