Tehran(Bazaar)-The 25 years agreement is an agreement of peace that will engage east into the global commerce, to the research of new ways to anticipate the monopoly of west and capitalism without really harming the indigenous, national and regional status of several states that will participate, Polina Aniftou said Bazaar in an exclusive interview.
Noting the significance of this agreement is turning Iran and China into key powers to promote Greater Eurasia into a secure and well developed region with peace and economic stability, she also stated that the 25 years agreement is an agreement of peace that will engage east into the global commerce.
Following is the text of the interview:
Bazaar: 25-year cooperation document between Iran and China was signed. What is the significance of this document for the two countries?
Aniftou: The Agreement between Iran and China was designed and discussed long time ago between the two parties as a result of their geopolitical stability and ambitions. Iran is a country that influences the whole Iranian plateau from Afghanistan to Lebanon, the influence is not only in political level, but also in history, language, culture and civilization. More than 300 million celebrate Nowruz, more than four countries speak Farsi and most of the countries in the region learn about their history from Iranian poets such as Ferdowsi, Hafez and even use Iranian traditions to contact each other. Thus when Iranian Ambassador visits Tajikistani Officials they communicate directly in Farsi, and in Iraq meetings start under Shia traditions. These elements have been studied by Chinese; these are strategic evidences that Iran can guarantee the security and the stability of an Agreement in the region. Iran has the power, it knows how to handle situations and knows the territory and the populations of Central Asia and Mediterranean.
This agreement has dual significance for both countries, a commercial and strategic nature. The agreed amount is about 420 billion USD for 25 years and will enforce projects in energy, infrastructure, transportation and new technologies. Thus Iran will undertake to secure the area from Kashmir to Beirut for China, to be the transporting place, the main commercial agent for European and Chinese products, and will assist the development and participation of Central Asian local markets to the expansion of Silk Road. The 25 years agreement is an agreement of peace that will engage east into the global commerce, to the research of new ways to anticipate the monopoly of west and capitalism without really harming the indigenous, national and regional status of several states that will participate. What Chinese see in Iran is something niche, Iran is a leading economy in the region despite the sanctions, it’s a self- efficient economy promoted by Islamic Revolution and Imam Khomeini visions, Iran has an in house dynamic in productivity and it supports neighbor markets in automotive, food and raw materials. Thus Iran is strategically and commercially the major ally of China in this agreement. From the other side China will support Iran in the monetary policies, to improve the negative effects of sanctions, the banking system assessment between the two countries will be easier and facilitate Iranian co-operations to go abroad, certainly we will have exchange of scientists and scholars, agriculture products to be exported not only to China but also to the countries that belong to Shanghai Cooperation under the guidance of China, and ECO regional organization will have a bigger role.
For China the benefits are also important as China will be introduced via Iran to markets in Asia and Mediterranean that until today does not have great analytics, also the corporate environment from business opportunities perspective will be enhanced. The fact that Iran will guarantee the Silk Road makes it easier for China not to be involved militarily in the region. Also this agreement secures Iranian position in Persian Gulf and advances China’s ambitions to Africa by using Iranian and Yemeni ports for fueling for Chinese cargos and ships to the way to Europe and Africa. Thus the agreement if we think that covers a sea area from Shanghai, to Hong Kong, to Singapore, India, Yemen we talk about the biggest agreement in history of Northern Hemisphere that changes the route of commerce and security. Also if we consider that the agreement starts from Shanghai to Kashmir, Afghanistan, Iraq and then Lebanon it deals with more than half of the land of Northern Hemisphere. So, the significance of this agreement is turning Iran and China into key powers to promote Greater Eurasia into a secure and well developed region with peace and economic stability.
Bazaar: In terms of time, what messages does the signing of this document have for the United States?
Aniftou: United States unfortunately were trapped by Israeli interests in the region, they work for the Israeli affairs and as Israel is a country that its population has no strong connection to the region, it cannot understand how the regional powers work. Trump Administration left JCPOA in 2018, applying “maximum pressure” doctrine. Trump was stating that he will celebrate New Year in Tehran in 2019 and that the Islamic Republic will be removed. These are few of the evidences indicating that west does not have a clear understanding of Iran. The reason for non- estimating Iran correct, it has to do with the meaning of the statehood, the features of capitalism and the importance of materialism for west. Iran is an economy that has its own production and its own human capital. The agreement with China indicates these two factors, that USA trapped their foreign policy into a great miscalculation of Iran.
Thus USA try to rebuild bridges with Iran under the hope that Iran will not be a solid ally of China and it will reconsider the power of USA in a global level. What USA stated in Vienna and mentioned to media that will lift the sanctions it is “a non- promising approach” and a trick to intricate Iran. USA cannot lift the sanctions as far as they feel that Israel is a weak country in the region, and especially after China invested 420 Million USD into Iran, it cannot lift the sanctions and suddenly make Iran a “superpower” with global potencies. There are some analysts that appreciate that both agreements can co- exist and be reinforced, but I am wondering how! That means in macroeconomics that the leverage of Iranian economy in the region will be increased tremendously, thus Iran will have benefits both from USA and from China. Unfortunately history and world economics teach us the opposite no power builds a new power in a region, if the new power is not becoming an agent. Thus USA is not prepared to lift sanctions at the moment, but this may occur in a year that the pressure by Russia and China will lead USA to lift sanctions partially.
Bazaar: The United States has expressed concern about the signing of this cooperation document. What worries America?
Aniftou: USA usually worry for whatever is outside their plans USA is aware that cannot control China. Through this agreement China will be present in Eurasian markets, in Mediterranean markets and established in Europe. If there is no legislation that can make it difficult for products outside Europe to enter the market, Europe will be turned into a great opportunity for the Silk Road countries. The employment terms may also change, households may buy new products, also new needs may be created due to this agreement into European, Russian, Indian markets. It’s good to keep in mind that this agreement is signed by Iran and China in order to engage all other markets. Iran in 2020 achieved the railway transportation with Afghanistan, there is the train built since Qajar times from Iraq to Germany. So the infrastructure exists, the concept of fair trading is a legal term in the agreement. Then USA certainly worry that the strategy and commercial provisions in the region will alter and after all USA can’t participate or control the developments that this agreement will create.
Bazaar: During Iran foreign minister, Zarif's visit to China, the Chinese Foreign Minister somehow tied the signing of this agreement to the settlement of Iran's disputes with the countries of the region. But he has now traveled to Iran to sign the agreement. Has there been a change in China's view since Biden came to power in the United States? In other words, has China been waiting for the policy of the new US administration?
Aniftou: China worried about the potential new approach between Iran and USA, the current government in Iran did not make sufficient to China whether a potential re-approach by USA would turn the interests of Iran towards USA. Chinese foreign policy was receiving the message by the current Iranian government that they are looking for an open discussion with USA and establish good relations. China did not want to be abandoned by Iran, China signed this agreement after receiving the good words by the Leader and IRCG. We have seen General Bagheri discussing with Chinese government and companies but not Mr. Rouhani. Thus the agreement was signed at this point for two reasons: 1) to engage Iran before the elections of 18th of June 2021, and 2) under the confirmation that Iran will follow its own path independently of any discussions with USA. It’s very important to say at this level that Iran needs to be aware that the strong party is China, thus Chinese will not accept any back and forth by Iran if USA asked it in order to lift the sanctions, China is a communist power working in a very preformist and practical way and they will not allow delays, non- loyalty and hesitations by Iran. That’s why I believe that the practical way of thinking and moving of China is much closer to the way that IRCG work, and that’s why Chinese trusted IRCG than Rouhani government in their collaboration.
I can say that China does not worry about the disputes in the region, Iran does not participate in any war, most of the countries have good relations with Iran, Iranian and Chinese civilizations are the most ancient in the periphery and both countries do not have similar interests in order to have conflicting duties. Iran operates in politics and commerce in Iranian plateau and China operates in the Eastern Asia. This indicates the geographic validity and nature of the agreement as well.
Bazaar: One of the important issues raised for this cooperation document is Iran's land connection to Iraq and Syria. In this way, China can connect to the Mediterranean Sea through Iran, Iraq and Syria. Iran has a strong presence in the Syrian port of Tartus, and pro-Iranian forces also control the Bokmal border crossing in Syria's Deir ez-Zor province and the al-Qaim crossing in Iraq's Anbar province. How feasible do you think this path is?
Aniftou: Iran has great allies in the region coming from Persian past and Shia profile, both these dynamics established Iran in several places in the region. Any presence of Iran in Syria occurred after the official call of the legally elected president Assad, thus Iran does not operate in Syria or in any other places without official permission. In Iraq since the 8 year war, many Iraqis claimed that most important for them is the Shia umbrella of Iran than the Arab or Bath- Saddam identity. The agreement with China will involve all countries of the region, it will be an expansion of the regional collaborations based on the network that Iran and China will build. Already in August 2020 the explosion in the port of Beirut was a great warning to Iran for transforming Beirut in the major Mediterranean port competing Haifa that also was dealing in 2019 to attract Chinese companies interfering with USA interests. The Silk Road is feasible because the transportation infrastructure exists, of course we will see a lot of attacks by west and western lobbies but I trust this is something that Iran and China expect.
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