TEHRAN(Bazaar) – Professor Hossein Askari, who teaches international business at the George Washington University, says Biden does not want to lose any support in Congress for his domestic agenda.
In an interview with the Bazaar, Askari also says, “If he lifts sanctions on Iran, this could reduce his sway and erode his support in Congress.”
Following is the text of the interview:
Bazaar: Iran has stated that if not to see the effects of lifting the sanctions in practice, the return of the United States to the JCPOA is meaningless. Do you think Biden will lift all sanctions by returning to the JCPOA?
Askari: The short answer is no. Biden does not want to lose any support in Congress for his domestic agenda. This is his number one priority. If he lifts sanctions on Iran, this could reduce his sway and erode his support in Congress. Even a handful of votes matter to him in a divided country. I would bet that he is engaged in back channel talks with Iran. He would be asking Iran not take any more steps. Simply freeze where Iran is right now, today, and give them six months to try to work things out. So no sanction lifting now, maybe just making it easier for essential imports of medicine and food, and engaging in talks.”
Bazaar: Considering that there are 4 months left in the life of the current government in Iran, will Biden wait to enter into negotiations with the future government of Iran?
Askari: No. The Biden team knows the current government of Iran—Iran’s president, his chief of staff and the foreign minister—so they would try to establish what I have just said, a freeze as of today and six months for talks and get the Supreme Leaders support so that it would carry on to the next government.
Bazaar: Despite the fact that some members of the Biden government are talking about the immediate agenda of the US return to the JCPOA, they are not taking any confidence-building measures to persuade Iran. What is the reason for this?
Askari: They want more time. They don’t want to be seen as making any compromise with Iran. So a delay and once Iran agrees, they would loosen sanctions only on essential imports. This would give the Biden administration cover and Iran something for agreeing to freeze everything for six months.
Bazaar: There are two weeks left until the deadline of Iranian Parliament to withdraw from the Additional Protocol. Do you think something serious will happen to the JCPOA in these two weeks? Will the US pay attention to this deadline?
Askari: I think that the U.S. will pay attention behind the scenes as I have indicated. Buy time in order to negotiate but also for Biden to be focused on his domestic agenda.
Bazaar: Qatar has announced its readiness for Iran-US talks and mediation in this regard, and its Foreign Minister has visited Iran. Will this country be able to play a role as a trusted mediator between the parties?
Askari: I think engaging Qatar would be a mistake. There must be direct talks. There is no reason not to have direct talks. The two sides know each other well, especially Zarif and Malley. They don’t need an intermediary.
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