TEHRAN(Bazaar) – William O. Beeman, Professor Emeritus of University of Minnesota, says “Qatar could be an excellent mediator. I think this is very promising. Qatar has strong economic and diplomatic interests both with Iran and the United States.”
He adds Ayatollah Khamene'i has been reluctant to engage in any negotiations with U.S.
In an interview with the Bazaar, Beeman also says, “U.S. sanctions against Iran are extraordinarily complex. There are dozens of different sanctions against banks, against individuals, and against trade. Some of the more recent ones contradict earlier ones.”
Following is the text of the interview:
Bazaar: Iran has stated that if not to see the effects of lifting the sanctions in practice, the return of the United States to the JCPOA is meaningless. Do you think Biden will lift all sanctions by returning to JCPOA?
Beeman: I have previously explained that the U.S. sanctions against Iran are extraordinarily complex. There are dozens of different sanctions against banks, against individuals, and against trade. Some of the more recent ones contradict earlier ones. They span many years, many U.S. administrations, and they cannot just be “lifted” with the stroke of a pen. There needs to be a thorough review of them before there can be any thought of "lifting" them. There is some danger in moving too quickly. If this is not done carefully, it could create more problems down the road. However, Biden, as a gesture of goodwill could cancel the Trump sanctions enacted after the withdrawal from the JCPOA. I don't know if he would be willing to do this without some indication that Iran was willing to enter into talks, but it could be a start.
Bazaar: Considering that there are 4 months left in the life of the current government in Iran, will Biden wait to enter into negotiations with the future government of Iran?
Beeman: I am certain that the Biden administration knows about the Iranian elections, and is aware that a change in government could result in a whole new set of negotiation parameters. I can't know what they are thinking today. But if I were Biden, frankly, I would wait until after the Iranian elections, especially given that Ayatollah Khamene'i has been reluctant to engage in any negotiations.
Bazaar: Despite the fact that some members of the Biden government are talking about the immediate agenda of the US return to the JCPOA, they are not taking any confidence-building measures to persuade Iran. What is the reason for this?
Beeman: I'm not sure what “confidence building measures” they could take unless Iran was also willing to engage in "confidence building measures." This will be a negotiation. If there were a mechanism for both parties to simultaneously make an initial gesture, perhaps through the offices of a mediator, this would be a positive step. Just an example: The United States lifts the Trump post-JCPOA imposed sanctions, and Iran reduces uranium enrichment of a portion of its stockpile at the same time.
Bazaar: There are two weeks left until the deadline of Iranian Parliament to withdraw from the Additional Protocol. Do you think something serious will happen to the JCPOA in these two weeks? Will the US pay attention to this deadline?
Beeman: You can be sure the U.S. will be paying attention to the deadline, but it will not be the same as if the Trump administration were in power. Of course, it would be excellent if the Iranian Parliament were to ratify the Additional Protocol. It has been on the table for 16 years, and was half-ratified once back in the Bush administration. Iran has no reason not to do this if it is serious about adhering to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). I would urge the Parliament to do this. At this point not ratifying the Additional Protocols is simply an obstruction to progress in returning to normalization. Every other nation has ratified these protocols, and Iran prides itself on being a signatory in good standing with the NPT.
Bazaar: Qatar has announced its readiness for Iran-US talks and mediation in this regard, and its Foreign Minister has visited Iran. Will this country be able to play a role as a trusted mediator between the parties?
Beeman: Qatar could be an excellent mediator. I think this is very promising. Qatar has strong economic and diplomatic interests both with Iran and the United States. The normalization of Qatar-Saudi Arabia relations is a very positive step, and Qatar is anxious to play an important international diplomatic role. I think this is very promising.
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