TEHRAN(Bazaar) – John Dunn, professor of political science at the University of Cambridge says since they are by far the two most populous countries in the world the most important economic development this year, whatever may happen in the future about the impact of artificial intelligence, must be the contrasting economic trajectories of India and China.
Following is the full text of the interview:
Q: The year 2023 is coming to an end and the world has witnessed various developments in this year. In your opinion, what has been the most important development this year?
A: I think the most important development this year will turn out to have been the Hamas attack on Israel. This thwarted the process of regional pacification, essentially largely on terms set by an extreme right wing Israeli government, and orchestrated by the Biden administration. It is impossible to tell quite how drastic the chain reaction set off by this will prove to be, but it was a spectacular political reversal secured by a very poor and weak political entity. It has already unleashed appalling levels of misery on the population of Gaza itself but these are nothing to the levels of damage it may still wreak or the geographical scale on which it might do so.
Q: In the field related to the economy, what development can be mentioned as a turning point this year?
A: Since they are by far the two most populous countries in the world the most important economic development this year, whatever may happen in the future about the impact of artificial intelligence, must be the contrasting economic trajectories of India and China.
Q: The war in Ukraine is still going on and there is some news from the western countries to lead Ukraine to talk with Moscow. According to some reports, the West has come to believe that this war cannot lead to a victory for Ukraine. What is your assessment and will we see peace talks in 2024?
A: What will happen in the Ukraine war will depend partly on the extent to which western support for Ukraine, economically as well as in military matériel, weakens and partly on how far Ukranian morale weakens at the prospect of an endless and sanguinary defensive war with a far larger and more heavily armed adversary, indifferent to its own human losses. I cannot imagine Ukranian surrender, but that is the Russian war aim. If Trump is the next US President a lot may depend on how he views the prospect of Ukrainian defeat.
Q: Despite serious tensions, the US and China are trying to manage these tensions. The meeting of the key officials of the two countries in this field has also focused on the same goal. Will this trend continue, or may an issue cause tensions to get out of control, like Taiwan?
A: Whether or not China attacks Taiwan will be decided by the internal politics of the Chinese regime. Given the current state of its economy it would be a desperate gamble, quite apart from the purely military issues. Like Saudi Arabia (and in due course Iran itself) China needs a world trading system that works.
Q: One of the important topics in 2023 was the Gaza war. How long do you think this war will last?
A: I fear the Gazan war may last for quite a long time, though that cannot be in the interest of any government with the faintest concern for those it governs in any country affected, least of all the Gazans or the Israelis. It will do them as little good as Osama Bin Laden did to the citizens of Afghanistan or the United States.ش
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