TEHRAN (Bazaar) – Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says he is not optimistic about revival of JCPOA
Pillar told Bazaar news agency that the Biden administration may get more energetic on that subject if the Republican control of the House of Representatives means Biden has no chance of getting any domestic program enacted, and he looks to foreign policy as an area to try to make progress.
Following is the text of the interview:
Q: Can we hope for the end of the war in Ukraine in 2023?
A: Whenever the war ends, it will be with some kind of negotiated settlement, or at least armistice, given that a military victory appears out of reach for both sides, barring something like a collapse of Putin's regime. And for now, neither side is interested in negotiations under terms that the other side also would accept. Perhaps the most we can hope for in a winding down of the war this year is for it to become a "frozen conflict" with any fighting at a much lower level than now, and each side staying at existing front lines.
Q: One of the most important issues in the changing world order is the containment of China by America. Is it possible that the tensions between these two countries will enter an intense phase in 2023? For example, in the issue of Taiwan, will the conflicts enter a more serious phase?
A: There is always the risk of some incident unintentionally escalating out of control. 2023 probably is no different from most other years in that respect.
Q: What is the prediction for the global economy in 2023? Will we see the end of the Covid 19 and the growth of the global economy?
A: If I could make that kind of economic prediction, I would be rich. I would just note that the current surge in the Covid pandemic in China has negative implications both for the disease (given the prospect of new Covid variants evolving with the virus surging in China) and the world economy (given how Covid will be dampening economic activity in China, and given the importance of China for the world economy).
Q: What is your prediction of the future of nuclear negotiations with Iran known as JCPOA? Will we see the revival of the JCPOA in 2023?
A: I am still basically pessimistic about that. But the Biden administration may get more energetic on that subject if the Republican control of the House of Representatives means Biden has no chance of getting any domestic program enacted, and he looks to foreign policy as an area to try to make progress.
Q: In your opinion, what political or economic developments may occur in 2023 that will affect the world?
A: There are many possibilities. One I would watch is various possible implications of the new extreme right-wing government coming to power in Israel. The upsurge in Palestinian deaths in 2022 may increase further, with a possible new Intifada.
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