TEHRAN (Bazaar) –Nader Entessar, Professor Emeritus of Political Science from university of South Alabama says that there is a 50-50 chance that the JCPOA can be revived.
“However, any agreement should be considered by Iran as a temporary one because of the tenuous domestic position of the Biden administration and its ability to deliver on whatever agreements are made in Vienna,” Entessar told Bazaar.
Following is the full text of the Bazaar interview with Professor Entessar:
Bazaar: The new round of Vienna negotiations ended while the European side announced that the text of the agreement is final, while Iran announced that this text is not final. On the other hand, Russia has announced that minor items in the text may be changed by Iran, and this is Iran's right. What is your assessment?
Entessar: The EU has been pushing its suggested text of the agreement as a fait accompli. It is not the EU that is the determining player in the outcome of the ongoing nuclear negotiations in Vienna. Also, as I had stated in my previous interviews, Russia is a secondary player in the possible revival of the JCPOA. The two relevant determining parties are Iran and the US, and it is these two countries that will decide the fate of the JCPOA and the current nuclear negotiations.
Bazaar: Western media sources have announced that Europe has given Tehran a good proposal to remove the safeguards disputed between Iran and IAEA. It seems that currently, Iran's demand is more focused on this issue. What is your assessment?
Entessar: The 2015 text of the JCPOA gives a prominent role to the IAEA and its safeguard reports about the contours and durability of anti-Iran sanctions. I am not sure what Europe's latest "good proposal" entails and how safeguards disputes can be permanently delinked from the fate of the JCPOA without making specific changes to the original version of the JCPOA.
Bazaar: Europe has announced that the parties will give their answer to the proposed proposal in the next few days. Should this be considered a deadline?
Entessar: No. So far, Iran has not fallen into the trap of the previous Western “deadlines.” Of course, the Vienna negotiations cannot be viewed as an open-ended process that will go on indefinitely. However, the fate of the JCPOA will not be changed by periodic "deadlines" and other implied threats.
Bazaar: Considering the developments after the recent negotiations in Vienna, what is your assessment of the revival of the JCPOA?
Entessar: I believe there is a 50-50 chance that the JCPOA can be revived. However, any agreement should be considered by Iran as a temporary one because of the tenuous domestic position of the Biden administration and its ability to deliver on whatever agreements are made in Vienna. The US Congress will do its best to derail the implementation of any possible new agreement with Iran.
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