۳۰ خرداد ۱۴۰۱ - ۰۹:۳۵
کد خبر: . ۱۵۷٬۳۰۳

TEHRAN (Bazaar) –Nader Entessar, Professor Emeritus of Political Science from university of South Alabama says that he is not very optimistic about the future of the JCPOA.

“When Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA and heaped truckloads of new sanctions against Iran, it essentially ended the agreement's utility,” Entessar told Bazaar.

Following is the full text of the Bazaar interview with Professor Entessar:

Bazaar: The resolution of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency was issued against Iran. What is your assessment of this resolution?

Entessar: The most recent IAEA resolution on Iran was similar in tone and content to the 2019 Board of Governors measure against Iran. Only Russia and China voted against the most recent resolution while India, Pakistan, and Libya abstained. The other members of the Board of Governors, including South Africa and Vietnam, sided with the U.S. and EU-3 and voted in favor of the resolution. In other words, the resolution easily surpassed the two-thirds voting threshold. Although the resolution merely asked Iran to comply with the IAEA Director's demands and did not threaten to send Iran's file to the UN Security Council at this time, it was nevertheless revealed the increasing politicization of the IAEA under Rafael Grossi's leadership.

Bazaar: Some believe that the tone of this resolution was not so sharp and Iran's reaction to it was not so strong and the way for “win-win” negotiations is still open. What is your assessment?

Entessar: I don't think Iran is in a position to be happy about the relatively mild tone of the most recent Board of Governors measure. The fact still remains that the IAEA has found Iran in "non-compliance" with some of its obligations under the agency's safeguards agreement. This is a very important point to keep in mind because if the JCPOA is revived and the U.S. decides to re-join the agreement, it can call for a meeting of the JCPOA's Joint Commission to deal with this matter. At that time, if the IAEA still finds Iran in violation of its safeguards obligations, the Joint Commission can vote to maintain all sanctions. In this case, all it takes is a majority vote of the Joint Commission to keep sanctions under a revived JCPOA. The U.S. and the three European countries can easily keep sanctions while claiming that they still adhere to the JCPOA. In short, it is not the tone of the IAEA resolution that is crucial; it is its implications for the implementation of a hypothetically revived JCPOA.

Bazaar: The next session of the Board of Governors is about three months away. According to the current resolution, will the negotiations for the revival of the JCPOA be held before the next meeting of the Board of Governors, and will it be concluded?

Entessar: It is difficult to project what will happen in the next three months. But if the Biden administration stays on its current course of indecision, it is hard to have an optimistic view on this matter.

Bazaar: There is an assessment that the Biden government is in a state of “non-decision” on the JCPOA until the midterm congressional elections in November. Because any agreement with Iran may have negative effects on the results of this election. On the other hand, it is estimated that Iran also believes that we should wait until November to determine Biden's position in the US internal structure and possibly in the next presidential election. Because this election sheds some light on Biden's future. What is your assessment?

Entessar: After the November congressional elections, the Biden administration will very likely be in a weaker position than it is today. Many public opinion polls indicate that Biden is in the same position as Jimmy Carter was when the Democrats were overwhelmed by the Republicans and eventually lost the presidency in a lopsided presidential election. In other words, we are dealing with an embattled U.S. president who is meandering in a sea of uncertainty.

Bazaar: Given the current trend, how do you assess the future of the JCPOA?

Entessar: I am not very optimistic about the future of the JCPOA. When Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA and heaped truckloads of new sanctions against Iran, it essentially ended the agreement's utility

۳۰ خرداد ۱۴۰۱ - ۰۹:۳۵
کد خبر: ۱۵۷٬۳۰۳

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