TEHRAN (Bazaar) – Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says the Europeans have an interest in sounding upbeat in order to impart a sense of positive momentum and thereby, they hope, improve the chance for success in the Vienna talks.
Pillar told Bazaar news agency “I am only slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.”
Following is the text of the interview:
Bazaar: After the European Union's coordinator for nuclear talks with Iran, Enrique Mora’s visit to Iran, European foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told reporters shortly before entering the G7 summit that Enrique Mora's visit to Tehran was “very positive” and that talks with Iran will be resumed soon. What is your assessment of these words?
Pillar: We simply don't know how much progress, if any, underlies Borrell's comments. The Europeans have an interest in sounding upbeat in order to impart a sense of positive momentum and thereby, they hope, improve the chance for success in the talks.
Bazaar: Doesn't the start of negotiations means that some issues have been agreed upon, albeit in a minimal way, and that it is a kind of opening in the deadlock of negotiations?
Pillar: Talking is better than not talking, and the Europeans should be complimented for making the effort to resume the talking. But that does not necessarily signal a breakthrough on any substantive issue.
Bazaar: Simultaneously with Mora's trip to Iran, the Emir of Qatar also traveled to Iran. What did the coincidence of these two trips mean?
Pillar: The timing probably was just coincidence. The Emir's meetings in Iran surely covered JCPOA-related questions, but they also would have covered other topics, from management of Persian Gulf gas fields to housing for the World Cup tournament.
Bazaar: Reuters wrote that the purpose of the Emir of Qatar's visit to Tehran is to try to revive the JCPOA and provide energy due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. What effect can Iran's aid to the European energy supply have on relations between the two sides?
Pillar: For the most part these are two separate issues. But I suppose it is possible that if help is provided on energy supplies, then the Qataris, or the Iranians through the Qataris, could argue that the Europeans (and the United States, which has a stake in Europe getting energy supplies that would better enable the Europeans to confront Russia) owe some concessions in return in the form of flexibility regarding the terms for restoring the JCPOA.
Bazaar: Given Mora's visit to Iran and the fact that Borrell stated that there is a prospect of reaching a final agreement, how much does it add to the optimism about the final agreement?
Pillar: I am only slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
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