TEHRAN(Bazaar) – A professor of political science at the University of Cambridge says “I don't think there will be a new world order but there is likely to be quite a lot of disorder in economic, political and military relations across the world for some time to come.”
In an interview with Bazaar, John Dunn adds “I think the European Union will almost certainly become a military bloc as a result of the Russian assault.”
Following is the full text of the interview:
Bazaar: In a recent speech, President Biden said that a new world order would be created and that we should lead it. He said that after World War II, the United States created a liberal world order, but now everything is changing. New world order will be created and we must lead it. And we must unite the rest of the free world for it. What does Biden mean by world order? If he means the liberal order, then that order is changing according to his words.
Dunn: I have no idea what is going through Biden's mind and doubt if it will prove to matter greatly.
Bazaar: Russia's invasion of Ukraine is considered by some to mean the weakening of the liberal order after World War II. NATO has failed to act as a deterrent, and the European Union is not even united in its sanctions against Russia. What is your assessment of this issue?
Dunn: The reaction of both NATO and the European Union has been pretty feeble so far, but I expect it to strengthen substantially in the months ahead if the Russian forces remain largely immobilized and they go on destroying Ukrainian cities by long distance bombardment. This shows the fatuity of the initial pretext for invasion and it also shows the Russian state in its present hands as in no way superior in political quality or internal strength or legitimacy than the Third Reich.
Bazaar: Which countries and groups will be the poles of the new world order?
Bazaar: The European Union has announced the formation of a rapid reaction force that will be operational by 2025. Does this mean that the EU, in addition to being an economic and political bloc, will present itself as a military bloc?
Dunn: I think the European Union will almost certainly become a military bloc as a result of the Russian assault.
Bazaar: In the future world order, what are the economic blockades like? Will we see the cooperation of the countries of the Free World against countries such as China and Russia, or will the interdependency between the countries not allow such blockades?
Dunn: I think the Western countries will only consider an economic blockade of China if it decides to intervene heavily in a military way by re-equipping Russian military and air units when they have essentially run out of munitions. This would be an absurd decision for the Chinese government, which can only gain from the failure of the Russian offensive and an increase in the already substantial level of dependence of Russia on China.
The Russian military performance has been dismal. I don't see the Russian army or air force as a band of Kamikazes. I think it very unlikely that they would obey the order to end large scale human life on earth.
With a little practical intelligence, the outcome could easily be turned appreciably to the benefit of Iran.
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