Marc Finaud, Head of Arms Proliferation at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), says “It is always tempting for the other JCPOA parties to put pressure on Iran within the IAEA or other frameworks.”
He adds that “However, experience has shown that the most effective means of achieving agreement is through patient, discreet negotiations outside public pressure.”
Following is the text of the interview with Marc Finaud.
Bazaar: Saeed Khatibzadeh, the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, recently implicitly stated that in the government of Ebrahim Raisi, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs may not be in charge of the nuclear negotiations and the Supreme National Security Council of Iran may conduct the negotiations. What effect will this have on the Vienna talks?
Finaud: It is of course up to the Iranian authorities to decide who will conduct the negotiations. Considering the governance structure in Iran, it may make sense to have a direct connection with the Supreme Leader for the sake of consistency and effectiveness.
Bazaar: Saeed Khatibzadeh has also stated that “Iran negotiated in Vienna based on the decision of the regime. In Iran, there has been a change of government and it is natural for changes to take place, but this does not mean that the decision of the Iranian government will change.” Does this mean that there is no change in Iran's policy regarding the continuation of the Vienna talks?
Finaud: Here again, it is up to the Iranian government to decide on its policy, but, irrespective of changes in governments, there are constant national interests for Iran to promote, including the lifting of sanctions to allow economic recovery.
Bazaar: Saeed Khatibzadeh also said, “All parties in the JCPOA should pay close attention to the fact that the coming days are very important days. Any action that is not constructive is definitely detrimental to the Vienna talks. The Islamic Republic of Iran will make its decision according to the behavior of the opposing parties. What is important now is to resume the next round of talks in Vienna with the P4 + 1 with Iran.” His remarks appear to refer to the next meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors. Do you think the IAEA Board of Governors will exercise caution at the next meeting, or may it issue a resolution to put pressure on Iran?
Finaud: It is always tempting for the other JCPOA parties to put pressure on Iran within the IAEA or other frameworks. However, experience has shown that the most effective means of achieving agreement is through patient, discreet negotiations outside public pressure.
Bazaar: The Israeli Prime Minister recently met with US President Joe Biden and they agreed on an “alternative plan” for the JCPOA. What is the message of this action while the Ebrahim Raisi government has come to power in Iran?
Finaud: It is unclear what this plan consists of. Certainly the United States will not accept any interference in the restoration of the JCPOA which is in the United States’ interest. It may be just tactical rhetoric aiming at warning Iran that failure of the Vienna talks could have negative consequences.
Bazaar: Robert Malley recently added Dan Shapiro, the former US ambassador to Israel, to the nuclear negotiating team with Iran. What is the reason for this and will there be a change in the US approach to the JCPOA?
Finaud: Apparently, the idea is to maintain close communication with Israel, whose Prime Minister is still opposed to the JCPOA but agreed not to campaign against it. By itself, this gesture towards Israel will not change the US position on the restoration of the JCPOA.
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