TEHRAN(Bazaar) – Professor Hossein Askari, who teaches international business at the George Washington University, says Iran cannot politically take the first step towards restoration of the JCPOA. It was the United States that left the agreement it had signed and imposed new sanctions.
In an interview with the Bazaar, Askari also says, “The new sanctions imposed by Trump pose a problem for Biden.”
Following is the text of the interview:
Bazaar: The Vienna Summit resumed after Israel's destructive action against Iran's Natanz nuclear facility. Why did the parties prefer the meeting to continue?
Askari: The United States and the Europeans have the goal of preventing Iran from ever having nuclear weapons. So for them, they realize that diplomacy is the only fruitful way forward. For Iran, it needs sanctions relief. Both sides want to find a way forward.
Bazaar: One of Israel's goals in this action was to get Iran the winner card in the negotiations. This was a great help to the United States. Given Iran's announcement of 60 percent enrichment, do you think Israel has achieved its goal? That is, was it able to empty Iran's hand in the negotiations?
Askari: Undoubtedly Israel wanted to derail the talks. To adversely affect Iran’s negotiating position. If Iran could not enrich as before then its negotiating hand would be damaged and the U.S. and Europeans would buy more time. But now that Iran will be enriching to 60%, then Israel’s terrorist action may have backfired.
Bazaar: The Chinese representative to the international institution in Vienna, Austria, said that the nuclear expert group tasked with determining Iran's actions to return to the JCPOA is well ahead of the expert group on the lifting of US sanctions against Iran. What do you think is the reason for this?
Askari: The Chinese are clearly developing closer relations with Iran. They are also realistic. Iran cannot politically take the first step towards restoration of the JCPOA. It was the United States that left the agreement it had signed and imposed new sanctions. So the United States has to lift the sanctions or at least agree to a simultaneous lifting of all re-imposed and new sanctions while Iran restores its commitments.
Bazaar: What is Biden's strategy for lifting sanctions on Iran (sanctions that were labeled nuclear before the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA) as labeled by Trump as fighting against terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, or human rights abuses? Will these sanctions be lifted or will they simply be suspended?
Askari: The new sanctions imposed by Trump pose a problem for Biden. If he lifts or suspends them, he has to certify that Iran is not engaged in any of the transgressions that you cite. But this then results in a problem for Biden with the Republicans and even with a number of Democrats who he cannot afford to alienate. So at best he could suspend the new sanctions imposed by Trump. Indeed, Trump has further poisoned the well and relations with Iran for some years to come.
Bazaar: Iran has stated that it has no opportunity for erosive negotiations and a conclusion must be reached as soon as possible. Why do you think the other side of Iran tends to prolong the talks?
Askari: Iran needs sanction relief as soon as possible in order to get its economy moving and to import some essential items, specially badly needed medicines and medical equipment. At the same time, if negotiations drag on, Iran could ramp up its enrichment and thus strengthen its negotiating hand. As far as the U.S. is concerned, it may feel that Iran may soften its demands for a return to the JCPOA as its economy deteriorates further
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