TEHRAN(Bazaar) –Shireen Tahmaasb Hunter, a professor of political science at Georgetown University, tells that despite Antony Blinken's statement that US withdrawal from the JCPOA was a mistake, I have not so far seen any indication that the US is serious about reviving the deal.
She adds that the Biden administration had had three years to rejoin the deal.
Following is the text of the interview:
Q: In the midst of the Gaza war, Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State announced that withdrawing from the JCPOA was a mistake because it had resolved one of the security issues with Iran. What is your assessment of his words at this time?
A: Despite Antony Blinken's statement that US withdrawal from the JCPOA was a mistake, I have not so far seen any indication that the US is serious about reviving the deal. The Biden administration had had three years to rejoin the deal. At a time when hardline politicians among both Democrats and Republicans are talking about Iran's role in supporting Hamas, and also with the presidential elections approaching, I don't see how Washington would be ready to resume talks with Iran. The only conceivable scenario is some kind of a deal with Iran, according to which Iran prevents its regional allies such as Hezboollah and certain groups in Iraq from attacking Americans and staying out of the conflict in Gaza.
Q: Josep Burrell, the head of foreign policy of the European Union, also announced after the Gaza war, said “The time for negotiations to revive the JCPOA is coming to an end and it is important to resume these negotiations. I understand how important these negotiations are for the region, especially Saudi Arabia.” How do you evaluate his words? Does it mean an attempt to immediately resume negotiations?
A: Josef Borel would like to see Iran again accept limitations on its nuclear program for a variety of reasons, including assuaging Saudi concerns. The Problem is whether Europe, but more importantly the US would leave up to their part of the deal and lift sanctions on Iran. I don't see this happening and don't see the Saudis and other Gulf Arabs wanting this to happen. Sanctions on Iran have served their interests by keeping Iran economically weak and politically isolated. Introducing Saudi and other Arabs' concerns into any prospective talks on the revival of the JCPOA would only complicate the matters more. Saudi security concerns as well as those of Iran should be addressed within a different framework than the JCPOA.
Q: Burrell also said “Although the countries of the region and Saudi Arabia are not directly at the negotiating table, their concerns will be taken into consideration.” It seems that this is a new issue. Before this, the Arab countries demanded direct participation in the negotiations, which was met with opposition. Has something new happened? Doesn't this make the negotiation process more difficult?
A: As I noted in my answer to question two, introducing extraneous subjects to any talks on the JCPOA, would complicate reaching any agreement.
Q: After the Gaza war, the spokesperson of the Iranian Foreign Ministry also said that “The subject of the negotiations is open within the defined framework and within the framework of the Sultan of Oman's initiative. Naturally, the situation and issue of Palestine, which has displaced regional and international priorities, can overshadow some issues or create priority and delay.” What is your assessment of these words?
A: The statement of the Iranian official seems to indicate that Tehran wants to keep its options open and decide on the matter of the JCPOA in light of evolving political developments especially those triggered by the Israel-Hamas war.
Q: According to the words of the officials of both sides of JCPOA, is it possible to start negotiations in the next few months?
A: At present, it is difficult to foresee what would happen to talks on JCPOA. My own impression is that with all of US attention focused on the war in Gaza, the likelihood of resuming talks on the nuclear deal is not very strong.
نظر شما