TEHRAN (Bazaar) –Nader Entessar, Professor Emeritus of Political Science from university of South Alabama says that Biden administration has always been interested in an interim agreement and not returning to the original JCPOA.
“Politically, Biden is not in a position to implement Washington's JCPOA commitments without paying a heavy domestic price, especially as we approach the 2024 US presidential elections. Thus, the status of JCPOA negotiations will remain tenuous,” Entessar told Bazaar.
Following is the full text of the Bazaar interview with Professor Entessar:
Q: Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian announced during his recent trip to Oman that he had received plans to revive the JCPOA. On the other hand, the Sultan of Oman is scheduled to visit Iran. It seems that the Sultan of Oman's visit to Iran can pave the way for beginning the nuclear talks. What is your assessment?
A: Oman has played a key role as an intermediary between Iran and the United States on a number of issues, including the JCPOA. Sometimes Oman's efforts have borne fruit, and other times they did not result in hoped-for results. The gulf between Iran and the West, especially the United States, remains wide on some key issues. Oman can most effectively offer its good offices but the ultimate decisions must be made by the two sides. In the absence of reliable information about behind-the-scenes dealings, it is hard to assess the efficacy of Oman's latest involvement in trying to revive the JCPOA.
Q: The details of the plan that Oman informed Amir-Abdollahian will not be published. But before that, it was announced that the US wants an interim agreement, which Iran rejected. It seems that Muscat's plan is related to this proposal. What is your assessment?
A: This is most likely the case. The Biden administration has always been interested in an interim agreement and not returning to the original JCPOA. Politically, Biden is not in a position to implement Washington's JCPOA commitments without paying a heavy domestic price, especially as we approach the 2024 US presidential elections. Thus, the status of JCPOA negotiations will remain tenuous.
Q: It was recently announced that European countries had a meeting with some non-permanent members of the UN Security Council in order to investigate the activation of the snapback mechanism against Iran. Do you think this is more of a promotional issue or not?
A: By agreeing to the snapback mechanism, Iran dug a hole for itself from which it will be very difficult to extricate itself should the other parties to the JCPOA decide to activate this mechanism. If the European countries decide to activate the snapback mechanism, it very likely kills any hope of reviving the JCPOA as it was drafted in 2015. Since the US has withdrawn from the JCPOA, it will be up to the Europe countries to take steps to activate the snapback mechanism. However, I don't think they will do so without the green light from Washington.
Q: Some sanctions related to Iran's missile and drone program (Under sunset clauses) will be lifted this October. To what extent can this encourage the other side of the JCPOA to start talks?
A: Of course, the coming expiration of the sunset clauses will play a role in any JCPOA-related decisions by the West. However, I do not think that this will be the determining factor in forcing the West to return to the JCPOA and start implementing its obligations.
Q: Based on recent developments, to what extent do you consider the beginning of talks probable?
A: Again, as I stated earlier, in the absence of reliable information, it is hard to believe that a breakthrough in nuclear talks is imminent.
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