TEHRAN(Bazaar) – Professor Frank N. von Hippel, former assistant director for national security in the White House Office of Science and Technology, says the way to a win-win agreement to return to the JCPOA is still open.
Following is the text of the Bazaar interview with Professor Frank N. von Hippel.
Bazaar: The resolution of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency was issued against Iran. What is your assessment of this resolution?
Frank N. von Hippel: The resolution of censure is unfortunate but of secondary importance relative to returning Iran and the US to compliance with the JCPOA. My guess is that France, Germany, the UK, and US decided to proceed with the censure resolution because Iran has added the demand that the US lift the “Foreign Terrorist Organization” label the Trump Administration attached to the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corp. The Trump Administration deliberately added that designation as a “poison pill” to make it more difficult for a successor Democrat Administration to rejoin the JCPOA. So, one and a half years later, the Trump Administration is still controlling the negotiations! We should be smarter than to allow that!
Bazaar: Some believe that the tone of this resolution was not so sharp and Iran's reaction to it was not so strong and the way for “win-win” negotiations is still open. What is your assessment?
Frank N. von Hippel: I believe the way to a win-win agreement to return to the JCPOA is still open. At the same time, however, the IAEA Board of Governors must support the agency’s right to investigate evidence of possible undeclared nuclear activities in a member state – even if those activities occurred twenty years ago. It would be a mistake, however, for the Board to refer Iran’s case to the UN Security Council. The focus should remain on reviving the JCPOA.
Bazaar: The next session of the Board of Governors is about three months away. According to the current resolution, will the negotiations for the revival of the JCPOA be held before the next meeting of the Board of Governors, and will it be concluded?
Frank N. von Hippel: I certainly hope that the return to compliance with the JCPOA by both Iran and the United States can quickly be agreed. But, for that to be possible, Iran will have to withdraw its demand that the US also lift its labeling of the IRGC as a “foreign terrorist organization”. It is my understanding that Iran has similarly labeled the US Central Command a foreign terrorist organization. Such labels do not have a meaningful impact. Lifting them would not reduce sanctions. They should not be used as distractions to the key goal: revival of the JCPOA.
Bazaar: There is an assessment that the Biden government is in a state of “non-decision” on the JCPOA until the midterm congressional elections in November. Because any agreement with Iran may have negative effects on the results of this election. On the other hand, it is estimated that Iran also believes that we should wait until November to determine Biden's position in the US internal structure and possibly in the next presidential election. Because this election sheds some light on Biden's future. What is your assessment?
Frank N. von Hippel: I believe the Biden Administration would be willing to proceed with the JCPOA if Iran withdraws its demand for the lifting of the US designation of the IRGC as a foreign-terrorist-organization. The US November election will be important to the future of both democracy in the United States and for the JCPOA. I do not see that as an argument for Iran to wait another six months to agree to return to the JCPOA, however. Iran could reap considerable economic benefits and reduce the danger of another war in the region if it agrees to implement the agreement that has been made for how Iran and the US will return to compliance with the JCPOA.
Bazaar: Given the current trend, how do you assess the future of the JCPOA?
Frank N. von Hippel: I am always worried that hostility might triumph over cooperation, and that we could end up in war that neither side could win but that would kill and impoverish many innocent people. I hope we can avoid more such stupidity.
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