TEHRAN(Bazaar) –Marc Finaud, Head of Arms Proliferation at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), says it should have been understood earlier by the Biden administration that lost an important opportunity to revive the JCPOA immediately after the presidential election.
He adds that “Hence the urgency to conclude the deal without further delay.”
Following is the full text of interview.
Bazaar: A draft anti-Iran resolution backed by Europe and the United States has been sent to the International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors, Reuters reported. Do you think such a resolution will be issued?
Finaud: Once draft resolutions are prepared, they are usually issued but it does not necessarily mean that they are adopted. They can also be used as means of pressure to precipitate agreement in the Vienna talks.
Bazaar: Some news sources, including Axios, have reported that the Biden government is unlikely to support the resolution because the dialogue with Iran is not closed. What is your assessment?
Finaud: If this is confirmed, it would show the hesitations in the Biden administration between external pressure and direct or indirect negotiations with Iran, which in the past have been more successful.
Bazaar: Before the important meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors, Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the IAEA, paid a visit to Israel. Following the visit, Israel announced that it would defend itself in the event of a failed diplomacy with Iran and the failure of the IAEA to suspend Iran's nuclear program and that Tel Aviv was committed to halting Iran's nuclear program. What is your assessment of this trip and this Israeli statement?
Finaud: It was a good opportunity for the Director-General of the IAEA to speak publicly of the importance of the NPT for world security in front of Israeli leaders and public, who are not used to such a discourse. By contrast, it showed the isolation of Israel in considering a unilateral military approach against the Iranian nuclear program.
Bazaar: Given the current situation, some experts believe that the best way out of the current situation is a temporary agreement for reviving the JCPOA. What is your assessment?
Finaud: The JCPOA is, in some aspects, already temporary with its sunset clauses of limited duration. But it is also a well-balanced package of mutual concessions and benefits for Iran and the P5+1. If a new temporary solution is adopted, it will lead to reduced benefits on all sides (limited sanctions relief vs. limited restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program). A comprehensive deal could also include new deadlines or sunset clauses to be adopted now or discussed later.
Bazaar: The closer we get to the midterm congressional elections, the less American interest in a nuclear deal with Iran. Because even with a proper agreement, Biden will not be able to persuade the opposition inside that not to give concessions to Iran. What is your opinion on this?
Finaud: This is unfortunately true and should have been understood earlier by the Biden administration that lost an important opportunity to revive the JCPOA immediately after the presidential election. Hence the urgency to conclude the deal without further delay.
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