TEHRAN (Bazaar) – Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says “Much that the parties, especially the United States, have been saying would suggest that this is the last round, whether an agreement is reached or not.”
He adds that “However, even if an agreement is not reached, that does not really mean that all diplomatic interactions on the subject would end.”
“It is possible that the talks would be frozen or suspended in what has been their current form, but the parties would still find ways to talk about possible next steps on nuclear matters and on sanctions,” Pillar told Bazaar news agency.
Following is the text of the interview:
Bazaar: Enrique MORA. Deputy Secretary-General European Union said that we needed a spirit of compromise to return to full implementation. Given the various unfavorable trends to undermine the JCPOA, it is necessary to conclude these negotiations sooner. What countries does Mora mean by unfavorable trends to undermine the JCPOA?
Pillar: I don't know what Mr. Mora had in mind, but my guess is that he was referring to the continued expansion of the Iranian nuclear program. That seems to be the one thing that is "trending" as distinct from decisions and events that took place in the past--most obviously the previous U.S. administration's reneging on the JCPOA nearly four years ago.
Bazaar: Before the beginning of the eighth round of talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian stated that "in reviewing the latest texts obtained from the Vienna talks, parts of our demands in the field of lifting sanctions have not yet been considered." Given these statements, do you think this is the last round of talks?
Pillar: Much that the parties, especially the United States, have been saying would suggest that this is the last round, whether an agreement is reached or not. However, even if an agreement is not reached, that does not really mean that all diplomatic interactions on the subject would end. It is possible that the talks would be frozen or suspended in what has been their current form, but the parties would still find ways to talk about possible next steps on nuclear matters and on sanctions.
Bazaar: Mikhail Ulyanov has announced that Iran will take the deadline in early March seriously. We will have a period of one to two months to prepare for the implementation of the agreement. What does he mean by a period of one to two months to prepare for the implementation of the JCPOA?
Pillar: I expect he means that from the time a new agreement is reached, some additional time would be needed for the agreed-upon obligations to be fulfilled. It could not be done instantly. This is true both of Iran cutting back its nuclear activities and the United States reducing sanctions.
Bazaar: According to the statements of the Iranian officials, it seems that some disputes, including on the issue of enriched uranium and advanced centrifuges, have not been resolved yet. Of course, the two sides have not yet strayed from the agreement, but the agreement is not very close. What is your assessment?
Pillar: It is unsurprising if some of the most difficult issues would be the last ones to be resolved. The low-hanging fruit was picked first. Probably as of this moment most of the individual items discussed have been resolved, but the minority that have yet to be resolved are among the most important issues.
Bazaar: Al Mayadeen reports that a draft of a 20-page document has been prepared in Vienna that sets out the framework for a comprehensive political agreement. The implementation of this draft will begin with the lifting of sanctions and Iran's permission to benefit from the transfer of its revenues. There is a positive atmosphere for reaching an agreement in the next few days or maybe weeks. What is your assessment?
Pillar: This report and a few other indications that have leaked out give some reason for hope that an agreement will be reached. But nothing is finally agreed to until everything is agreed to, and the negotiators do not seem to be there yet.
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